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Buying Sun Microsystems (SUNW)

I'm buying Sun Microsystems (SUNW).  Am I crazy?  Aren't they a dinosaur company selling proprietary hardware, and living on the bones of their installed base?

Not anymore.  I don't personally use SUN hardware or software in my work, but I believe there is a real turn around in progress.  The number one indicator I can cite is the TRANSPARENCY of Jonathan Swartz's blog (he's the CEO).  Their move to open source, and opening up their OS to run on other company's hardware (such as HP and Dell) is huge.  (I think Apple could benefit a lot from a big dose of this sort of openness...)

Regardless of what you think of SUN as an investment, I would encourage you to read Jonathan's blog as a model for 21st century corporate culture.
posted by ericb | 0 Comments

South Korea: Buying the bad news

I bought more ISHARES MSCI-SOUTH KOREA (EWY) this morning.  It was trading down 4+% at the open based on the news of the North Korean nuclear test.

Nuclear weapons in the hands an irrational megalomaniac within a few miles of Seoul is admittedly scary, but I don't see how the confirmation of something that many informed sources have been expecting for years has any real impact on the South Korean economy.

On a related note:  I bought the
THAI FUND INC (TTF) on September 19th (the day of the coup).  Since then it's gone up over 12%.  Another case where the news was scary, but in this case hopefully positive for the Thai economy...
posted by ericb | 0 Comments

Value Wiki

I just got an email from Jonathan, pimping ValueWiki, and asking me to link back to their site. Normally I don't get into this sort of reciprocal link farming, but Jon and Zach have an interesting idea, which is basically to start an investment specific version of Wikipedia.  Get users to update and share investment related content...

I like the concept, but I don't see myself contributing, we'll see if it flies...
posted by ericb | 0 Comments

Veiwer Mail

It's time to answer some viewer mail:

Hello Eric,

I understand that you are not available for "free" consulting and can't spend hours doing so. Having said that I do read your blog and appreciate your posts.  As a newbie who has under 10K to start investing in stocks, bonds, whatever you suggest... I do watch Jim Cramer and I am about to open up a trader's account.  As I figured out so far ... with little money, do not buy stocks that are over $50/share because even if they boom, the return will be little due to low number of shares purchased.

I am currently watching stocks such as AUO, ERTS, GME, and RUTH. FedEx and SHLD would be great to invest in, but too rich for my blood.  How about DELL? All time low now. Being a marketing manager my self, I think they will bounce back.  Any advise ... and believe me ... any advise would be much appreciated. I am planning on using ShareBuilder.

Thank you.

Igor

Hi Igor-

Thanks for your email. First of all congratulations on making the decision to invest the $10,000 instead of buying a new plasma TV and a trip to Las Vegas!

My advice depends a lot upon what your goals are.  I'm guessing you probably fit one of the following three profiles:

  1. Active Trader: You are planning on watching the market every day, and actively trading.
  2. Weekend Warrior: You're going to take an active interest in researching the things you invest in, and staying on top of the market news, but you don't have time to respond to market moves and news every day (I put myself in this category).
  3. Buy and Hold Investor:  You want simple strategy like "dogs of the Dow" (bad idea), that you only have to look at once or twice a year.

If you are planning to be an Active Trader, transaction fees could eat you alive with only $10,000 to invest.  Note that most online brokerages charge you a fixed transaction fee no matter how big your order is.  For example ShareBuilder is going to charge you $15.95 for a market order.  That means that if you are paying them $31.90 for a round trip (buying and then selling a stock).  Let's do a little sample math:

  • You buy 100 shares of XYZ at $5.00 per share today, it goes up 10% over some period of time, and you sell 100 shares at $5.50.  You just made $50 - $31.90 = $18.10.  Your "10%" gain, was really a 3.6% gain. Ouch!
  • By contrast I make the same trades, but buy and sell 1,000 shares and only get charged $9.99 per trade by my broker.  My net return is 9.6%.

And we haven't even started talking about taxes yet...

Does this mean you shouldn't actively trade $10,000 dollars?  Not necessarily, but you have to recognize how much impact transaction fees are going to have on your returns, and so you should probably stick to a small number of stocks in you portfolio and larger transaction sizes (as a percentage of your total portfolio).

If you are going to be a Weekend Warrior, but sure to learn about "stop loss" orders (I've previously written about "trailing stops" which are a happy thing, if your broker supports them.)  I would also take some time to learn about Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs).

Based on your email I'm pretty sure you won't be a "Buy and Hold" investor, but if you were, I would steer you towards mutual funds and ETFs exclusively (no individual stocks).

A note on ShareBuilder:  I wasn't previously familiar with this company but here are a couple of thoughts:

  1. Their transaction costs seem high compared to other online brokers.  The monthly subscription fees in particular would add up pretty fast.
  2. They offer an interesting option to let you make automatic monthly investments, but they are going to charge you for every transaction... bleeding you to death.  By contrast many mutual fund companies will let you make monthly contributions for free (keep in mind that the mutual funds are also collect fees, but only as a percentage of you total holdings, not for each transaction!)

I'm starting to drone on, but I hope you find some of this helpful.  Good luck.

-EAB

posted by ericb | 0 Comments

Stopped out of CVX

I had a 10% trailing stop on Chevron (CVX) that fired today, selling my position at 61.60.

A trailing stop is a order that automatically adjusts itself based on a stocks price.  Chevron hit a 52 week high of 68.47 on 7/27/06, and so my 10% trailing stop was 61.62. 

I'm a big fan of trailing stops.  I don't have time to watch the market every day, and my investment style is fairly long-term buy and hold, but still like the idea of locking in profits when the market makes a big move down.

Chevron isn't really a company that I have any particular long term faith in, and so I would rather take my money and sit on the sidelines after a drop like this...
posted by ericb | 0 Comments

529 plans revisited

As I mentioned earlier: I  recently received an inquiry about being interviewed for an article on 529 plans.  Well, it's official I did the interview, and we have a photographer coming by this evening to take a cute family portrait.  The article will tentatively be running  in the New York Times Sunday Business Section this coming week!

It's been 3 years since I wrote the original post that prompted this interview, and so I thought I should take a few minutes to write an update describing what we actually did.  When I wrote the original post Anna was just 2 weeks old.  Soon after that we opened a New Mexico 529 account, and deposited $110,000 dollars in it.  This will immediately bring up several questions for many readers I'm sure:

Q: Why New Mexico?
A:  We wanted a plan with decent performance history, and relatively low fees.  There wasn't an obvious winner, but we were able to narrow it down to a small number, one of which happened to be New Mexico, which happened to be offered through E*Trade (my primary broker)... decision made.

Q:  Why $110,000?
A:   Because we could.  We just crossed one major parenting task off the list, that we won't have to worry about for the next 18 years.  Also, this was the maximum one-time contribution that a couple could make in 2003 (this went up to $120,000 in 2006).

Q:  Won't saving all this money hurt her chances for financial aid?
A:   I'm hopeful that Anna wouldn't have been eligible for any financial aid anyway.  This is the same reason I hope for big income tax bills... it means we made a lot of money. :-)

Q:  What if Anna doesn't go to college, or gets a full ride?
A:  The money doesn't have to be used for Anna, we can change the beneficiary to Anna's future children, or even her parents (Sara or I could decide to go back to school...).  Worst case Anna uses the money to buy a house, and pays income tax at her rate on earnings plus a 10% penalty.  Note the account has been growing tax free for 18 years at this point.

Q:  What if the 529 law sunsets in 2010?
A:  See the answer to the previous question.  This would probably mean that she would have to pay taxes on the earnings at her rate even if the withdrawals are for college expenses.  The money still grew tax free for some period of time, and the earning were never taxed at our (the parents) higher rate.

Benjamin was born in 2005, and we opened a similar account for him with the Ohio 529 plan.

Q:  Why did you switch to Ohio?
A:  I'm a big believer in diversification.  There just didn't seem to be any reason to put all of our college savings in one basket.

I'm betting that I'll be getting some additional traffic next week based on the article.  Hopefully we'll have some interesting discussions...

UPDATE:  Here is the link to the New York Times article: http://www.nytimes.com/2006/09/17/business/yourmoney/17coll.html?ref=yourmoney


posted by ericb | 0 Comments

Buying Apple (AAPL)

I'm buying Apple (AAPL) today.  If you read my technology blog, you already know that I bought a new MacBook laptop this week, and I think it's the cat's pajamas (great)!

But why should anyone buy the stock you ask? My purchase is emblematic of next big wave of growth that I predict Apple is going to see over the coming years, and that is Windows users switching to Apple hardware, but staying on Windows.  Apple has always had great hardware, but it's expense, and it only ran the Macintosh operating system.  With Apple's switch from the PowerPC CPU to Intel CPUs, and the advent of software products like BootCamp, Parallels, and the soon to be released VMWare for Mac it is now possible to run any version of Windows on an Intel Mac (not to mention almost any version of Linux) and it's FAST and STABLE!

I work for a consulting company that is a Microsoft Gold Partner (we live an breath Microsoft all day everyday), our CEO is carrying a new MacBook Pro, our head IT guy is carrying a new MacBook Pro.  I'm also aware of Microsoft employees, a other thought leaders in the Microsoft development community who are know using Apple laptops as their primary work computer.

So time will tell whether this is a few uber geeks playing with expensive toys, or a group of savvy early adopters starting a trend...I'm confident it's the later.

Prediction: 2 years from now a lot of people will look at Apple as primarily a WINDOWS hardware company, and that's a HUGE market compared to the Macintosh, or even the Ipod.

UPDATE:  Here's an interesting article from the Seattle Times that support my premise, recommending the Apple MacBook as "the best computer for school", because you can run Windows AND Mac OS X.
posted by ericb | 0 Comments

Blog = credibility?

Interesting note from my mail bag today:
I'm a reporter with XYZ magazine. I am doing a freelance story for the ACME (major newspaper) on 529 plans. I noticed that you wrote about them in your blog and I wanted to shoot a couple of questions at you -- not that you are an expert, but rather as a thoughtful non-expert who uses the plan for his kids college savings. If you're game, shoot me your number and I will call you when you are available to chat. Thanks!
Sounds like fun, I'm looking forward to chatting with him.  The thing that I find interesting is that by posting my random musings out here on my little blog, that nobody actually reads, I've got some sort of perceived credibility. 

I write therefore I must know what I'm talking about...

posted by ericb | 0 Comments

The US auto industry is doomed...

...I heard it on flight from Detroit to Minneapolis this morning.

I was sitting with "Bob", a 25+ year white collar GM employee, who was flying out "west" to interview with a Japanese automaker.  This in and of itself isn't shocking at all, but then our conversation turned to pensions, and things got interesting.  We were flying on Northwest Airlines, which is in bankruptcy, and had to get new legislation through congress this past month to temporarily "save" it's pension from being turned over to the PBGC within the next year. 

I know some recently retired Norwest pilots, who were lucky enough to have a contract that allows them to take part of their pensions as a lump sum payout.  It didn't take an an economist to convince any of them that the lump sum was a very good idea...  The likelihood that Norwest (or any other major airline or big three automaker) will be able to meet it's pension obligations 5 or 10 years from now seems very slim...

But, back to Bob, who's house in Detroit is worth 20% LESS than what he paid for it 5 years ago.  He said, "Two or three years ago I would never have considered jumping ship, the retirement benefits were just too good.  Today, I'm ready to ABANDON my pension for a job with a future, in a town with a future!"

25 year GM veterans saying "screw the pension, I'm outta here..."  Yes, GM is definitely doomed...
posted by ericb | 0 Comments

ETF and International Investment News

I've setup a new part of the site that agregates blog posts from other sites on Exchange Traded Funds (ETF's) and International investing.  This is primarily for my personal use, but perhaps other people will find it useful...

If you have a blog that is primarily focused on ETF's and/or Internal investing, let me know and I'll add it to my "roll".

Here is the link: http://scrappydog.com/roller/default.aspx

Here are blogs that are currently being aggregated:


posted by ericb | 0 Comments

International ETF's: Time to get back in the water?

Here is a graph of a few of the International Exchange Traded Funds that I follow:  EWZ, EEM, ILF, and EWA (these are all still current holdings of mine).  In late May and early June I sold off a significant percentage of my long term positions in these, and other international ETF's and mutual funds, to lock in profits, and generally reduce the stress of watching the bottom fall out day after day...



It looks to me like we saw a real bottom in early June, and we are hopefully back on the long-term uptrend that these stocks have been on for the past few years.  But is it real, or just wishful thinking on my part?

I'm sitting on a lot of cash at the moment, but between the current Middle East uncertainty, and my embarrassment at not having locked in my profits in early May, I'm going to stay on the sideline a little while longer, and wait for a clearer picture...
posted by ericb | 1 Comments

Stopped out of EWZ EWJ EWY

I've got trailing stop orders on most of my EFT and Stock positions, and they've been firing like crazy today.  This is sad because the market is down so much, but happy because I've locked in some significant profits.

The next question is when to get back in?  Sure would be nice if somebody would ring a bell at the bottom for me...
posted by ericb | 2 Comments

They don't ring a bell at the top.

Ouch.  The emerging markets blood letting doesn't seem to want to stop, and I'm down the price  of a nice luxury car in the past week . My "buy on the dip" call of a few days ago has proven to be way to early.  I still strongly believe in emerging markets as a much better long term investment than the US, but the volatility can be pretty nerve wracking...

I sitting tight and holding all positions, but I've definitely had some temptation to sell all and wait for the bottom to buy back in at. The problem with this, of course, is that today could be the bottom...

To quote Warren Buffett: "They don't ring a bell at the top." (or at the bottom)

With a crystal ball I would have sold everything last Wenesday... and be waiting on the sidelines for an entry point... but I'm not a trader any more, and most of the money I'm investing is in retirement accounts were my I have a very long term view.
posted by ericb | 3 Comments

Buying ISHARES MSCI SOUTH AFRICA (EZA)

I'm buying  ISHARES MSCI SOUTH AFRICA (EZA) in the morning. It's down 13% in the last three trading days, and the Rand was down 3% today.  There isn't really any news to warrant either statistic other than a broad based sell off of emerging market stocks in the past few days (aka. profit taking)...

Whatever the case it definitely seems like an over reaction. I think this is also true of a lot of other emerging markets EFTs and funds today, but it seems particularly egregious in South Africa, and so I'm (hopefully) buying on the dip.

I'm going to take some time tonight to look for other buying opportunities...
posted by ericb | 1 Comments

Industry interest in Investment Blogs

This blog has a tiny readership, but yet I get a surprising number of inquiries from PR people for investment related companies asking:
  • Would I be interested in free access to their service in exchange for blogging about it?
  • Would I be interested in receiving free early editions of investment related books to review?
  • Would I be interested in free investment related software?
It's amazing really...  My technology blog generates 20x as much traffic, but "investment blog" is consistently the #1 key word search that hits any of my sites, and 90% of my small Google Adwords revenue is from the investment blog (shockingly I just discovered I'm #1 in Google for this search criteria, which could have something to do with it...).

So what conclusions do I draw from this?  There is apparently still a relative shortage of decent investment content online, and a relatively huge number of advertising dollars chasing it. 

Maybe I should put more time into this...
posted by ericb | 5 Comments
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